Monthly Car Supply Update October 2020

Read our monthly update on car supply movements into Australia.

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• Weekly Market Update 18th November 2024November 18, 2024
• Weekly Market Update 11th November 2024November 11, 2024
• Weekly Market Update 4th November 2024November 4, 2024
• Weekly Market Update 28th October 2024October 28, 2024

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New Car Sales October 2020

• October 2020 saw a total figure of 81,220 new car sales for Australia as reported by VFACTS
• Latest VFACTS figures show that new car sales have fallen by only 1% in October 2020 compared to October 2019
• With COVID-19 cases being limited, it appears new car sales are returning to pre-COVID norms
• So far in 2020, the market has seen 167,809 (-19%) less new car sales compared to 2019
• Victoria has been the hardest hit, down 82,246 units (-32%) compared to 2019
• In total, the new car market in 2020 is down 19% compared to 2019, which is on par from last month when it was down 21%

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New Car Sales Trends

So far this year there are only a handful of segments that have sold higher than last year, including:

• People Movers > $60k (+81%)
• SUV Upper Large > $100K (+30%)
• Light Buses => 20 Seats (+20%)
• Small > $40K (+14%)
• SUV Small > $40K (+6%)

Conversely, some of the largest decreases have been in:

• Large < $70K (-64%)
• Light < $25K (-45%)
• People Movers < $60K (-43%)
• Large > $70K (-29%)
• Sports > $80K (-41%)
• Small < $40K (-32%)

Some other highlights:

• Small to Medium SUV’s dominate the list of vehicles that have outperformed so far this year, with the Toyota RAV4, Kia Seltos and Mazda CX-30 leading the way
• Small vehicles have so far seen the largest declines with the Mazda 3, Hyundai Accent and Hyundai i30 falling the most
• The rental market has shrunk considerably this year, with 36,058 less cars (-59%) selling so far this year to rental businesses

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Car Imports

• Car Imports increased again in September 2020, recording a figure of $3.011 billion according to latest ABS figures
• This represents a decline of only $1 million (-0.03%) compared to September 2019
• The cumulative total for 2020 shows imports are now down $5.8 billion compared to 2019
• Sales of imported vehicles continue to increase from China (+7,605 YoY) while European manufacturers are seemingly redistributing their production across the continent
• Sales of imported vehicles from the largest manufacturing countries including Thailand, Japan, South Korea and Germany continue to be down
• Stock supply entering Australia is significantly down which will affect new car sales activity for the coming months

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International Car Exports

The latest government figures show the following changes in car export volume from the large car manufacturing nations:

• South Korea is down 20% so far through September 2020 compared to 2019
• Japan is down 29% so far through September 2020 compared to 2019
• The United Kingdom is down 35% so far through August 2020 compared to 2019
• Germany is down 28% so far through August 2020 compared to 2019
• The United States is down 36% so far through August 2020 compared to 2019

With car production and exports from international markets still significantly low, imports into Australia are likely to remain subdued for sometime.

New car sales in large international markets are also still low and with Australia further down the priority chain for car manufacturers, it’s likely that new car supply into Australia will struggle for the next few months.

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By Tanim Ahmed, Head of Product at Datium Insights

Tanim is a Macquarie University alumni with degrees in Finance and Economics. He has spent a decade in the Leasing and Finance industry, specializing in Residual Value risk.

Please contact Datium Insights for further analytical support and advisory services.

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